This EPL model has performed extremely well in the past - for the 2008/09 season a model was built using data from the 5 seasons prior and applied to 08/09 season - resulting in 214 correct tips, out of 380 games for a success rate of 56.3%. - this figure might not sound like much for those more used to AFL / NRL-type tipping, but consider in soccer there are 3 possible outcomes to tip from.
To put this in perspective, last year on the tipping website http://www.footytips.com.au/ there were 33,400 people in the EPL tipping comp for last season. As yet I cannot find the number of tips the winner ended up on, but 2nd place finished on 212 tips - so there's every chance this model on 214 tips would have finished on top.
Of course the other measure of this model's success is profitability. Betting on all teams with an overlay (an advantage over the bookies price) saw a Return on Investment of 13%, a pretty good figure in anyone's books. However if a couple of simple filters are applied then this figure jumps to 36%, which is simply outstanding.
Of course talk is cheap, it's easy to boast about how the model has gone in the past - if this season's figures come close to last year's I'll be more than happy. So without further delay here are my picks for the first week of the Premier League.
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | Pr Home | Pr Draw | Pr Away |
| 15/08/2009 | Aston Villa | Wigan Athletic | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| 15/08/2009 | Blackburn Rovers | Manchester City | 43% | 30% | 28% |
| 15/08/2009 | Bolton Wanderers | Sunderland | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| 15/08/2009 | Chelsea | Hull City | 91% | 7% | 3% |
| 15/08/2009 | Everton | Arsenal | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| 15/08/2009 | Portsmouth | Fulham | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| 15/08/2009 | Stoke City | Burnley | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| 15/08/2009 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | West Ham United | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| 16/08/2009 | Manchester United | Birmingham City | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| 16/08/2009 | Tottenham Hotspur | Liverpool | 18% | 26% | 56% |
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