A decent week of tipping in week 2, tipping all home teams and having 3 of them win. That brings the season average up to 50% so far - if we can stay above that figure for the rest of the season I'll be happy.
A bit of analysis has shown that there is some consistent profit to be made by betting on home teams where the probability of winning is less than 55%, yet still have an advantage over the bookie (see earlier posts regarding the Kelly betting method for further discussions on this). Having said that, I'd avoid betting on games involving Gold Coast or North Queensland for a while yet until their ratings stabilise somewhat.
| Date | Team 1 | Team 2 | Venue | Pr T1 |
For the first time this season the model has thrown up a tip on an away team. The home team dominance a testament to the fact that given then fickle nature of form in the A-League, even a slim case of home-team advantage will win out.
Pr Draw | Pr T2 |
| 21/08/2009 | Adelaide United | Gold Coast | Hindmarsh Stadium | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| 22/08/2009 | Central Coast Mariners | Sydney FC | Bluetongue Stadium | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| 22/08/2009 | North Queensland | Melbourne Victory | Dairy Farmers Stadium | 36% | 27% | 38% |
| 23/08/2009 | Queensland Roar | New Zealand | Suncorp Stadium | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| 23/08/2009 | Perth Glory | Newcastle Jets | Members Equity Stadium | 37% | 27% | 36% |
Total tips for the season: 5 from 10 (50%)
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