EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 10 Predictions

EDIT - Given that both West Ham and Aston Villa drew over the weekend, their ratings only changed slightly, and the match probability for tomorrows game has barely changed from the posted last week.

On the surface a poor week last week, only getting 3 correct results for the round.  However the average on footytips was only 2 tips, so we actually improved the overall position from the top 5% to within the top 3%.  Also a nice week on the betting as wins on Birgmingham and Liverpool saw a return for the week of around 60%.

11 games in total to report on in the next week - the extra due to a catch-up being played between West Ham and Aston Villa which was originally meant to happen earlier in the season.  Obviously the rating for these 2 teams will change after they play their weekend matches and I will try to update this before Wednesday - however it would take something like a 10-goal result in either of their prior games for the tip to change from Villa to West Ham.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
31/10/2009	Arsenal	Tottenham Hotspur	70%	19%	11%
31/10/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Chelsea	11%	19%	70%
31/10/2009	Burnley	Hull City	53%	27%	20%
31/10/2009	Everton	Aston Villa	46%	29%	25%
31/10/2009	Fulham	Liverpool	16%	24%	60%
31/10/2009	Manchester United	Blackburn Rovers	85%	10%	5%
31/10/2009	Portsmouth	Wigan Athletic	42%	30%	28%
31/10/2009	Stoke City	Wolverhampton Wanderers	54%	27%	19%
31/10/2009	Sunderland	West Ham United	39%	30%	30%
1/11/2009	Birmingham City	Manchester City	29%	30%	41%
4/11/2009	West Ham United	Aston Villa	31%	30%	39%

Total tips for the season: 54 from 96 (56%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 13 Predictions

A great round last week in the A-League, tipping 4 out of 5 correct results - Wellington's massive upset win over Gold Coast being the game we missed.  The average correct tips for the round on footytips was just 0.5 - so the results see us move to the top 1% of all tippers there.  A great week was also had by those following the predictions for betting, with bets on New Zealand, Newcastle and North Queenlsand all getting up.

This week sees Central Coast play at Canberra again, so by treating this game as a neutral venue we actually end up tipping Adelaide.  All other games appear pretty much spot on, though I notice North Queensland appear to be value paying around $5+ against Gold Coast who have struggled lately.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
30/10/2009	Queensland Roar	Newcastle Jets	Suncorp Stadium	47%	26%	27%
31/10/2009	Central Coast Mariners	Adelaide United	Canberra Stadium	35%	27%	38%
31/10/2009	Gold Coast	North Queensland	Skilled Park	46%	26%	28%
1/11/2009	Sydney FC	New Zealand	Sydney Football Stadium	49%	25%	26%
1/11/2009	Perth Glory	Melbourne Victory	Members Equity Stadium	31%	26%	43%

Total tips for the season: 26 from 58 (45%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 9 Predictions

A slightly better than average week in the Premier League, managing to get 6 of the results correct.  This puts us within the top 5% of all tippers on footytips.

Business as usual this week, the most interesting match-up looks to be Liverpool vs Man Utd.  The model has tipped Liverpool slightly in front due to the home-ground advantage, and probably not enough time has lapsed for the injuries to their two best players - Gerrard and Torres - to be reflected in the model's ratings yet.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
24/10/2009	Birmingham City	Sunderland	43%	30%	27%
24/10/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Everton	27%	30%	43%
24/10/2009	Burnley	Wigan Athletic	42%	30%	28%
24/10/2009	Chelsea	Blackburn Rovers	84%	11%	5%
24/10/2009	Hull City	Portsmouth	36%	31%	34%
24/10/2009	Manchester City	Fulham	53%	27%	20%
25/10/2009	Tottenham Hotspur	Stoke City	62%	23%	15%
25/10/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Aston Villa	23%	28%	49%
25/10/2009	Liverpool	Manchester United	37%	30%	33%
25/10/2009	West Ham United	Arsenal	15%	24%	61%

Total tips for the season: 51 from 86 (59%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 12 Predictions

A good week tipping-wise in the A-Aleague last week, getting 3 of the results correct.  Interesting to hear Foxsports commentators Simon Hill and Robbie Slater comment during a game last week on how hard it was to pick winners in the A-League, something I've been saying since the start of the season.

I'm not sure the unpredicatble nature is a good thing for the health of the league - indeed when Melbourne Victory were taking all before them in the 2006/07 season the crowds grew game after game, to the point where they drew 50,000 fans for a home-and-away match against Sydney.  We won't be seeing that repeated again in a hurry.

Anyway despite the tough nature in picking winners, last weeks good results see us move into the top 5% of all tippers on footytips (as we have with the Eniglish Premier League).  Another interesting round this week - we've tipped Newcastle via the slimmest of margins against Central Coast, although given they only have to travel an hour up the road and Newcastle's crowd numbers have been dwindling, I wouldn't expect the home ground advantage to be as strong as in other circumstances.  We've also tipped the Gold Coast away to Wellington, who have had a very strong home record this season.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
23/10/2009	Newcastle Jets	Central Coast Mariners	EnergyAustralia Stadium	36.64%	26.76%	36.61%
24/10/2009	Melbourne Victory	Adelaide United	Telstra Dome	49%	25%	26%
24/10/2009	North Queensland	Perth Glory	Dairy Farmers Stadium	42%	26%	31%
25/10/2009	New Zealand	Gold Coast	Westpac Stadium	35%	27%	38%
25/10/2009	Sydney FC	Queensland Roar	Sydney Football Stadium	43%	26%	31%

Total tips for the season: 22 from 53 (42%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 8 Predictions

Only managed to tip 3 results correctly last week, but with the average for the round on footytips only 1.8 for the round this doesn't appear so bad.  Again no bets were made last week.

No surprises agaon this week - if anything the away teams of Manchester City and Tottenham are probably under the odds, this will likely be the case until they string together some consecutive wins - or until they play each other.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
17/10/2009	Arsenal	Birmingham City	84%	11%	5%
17/10/2009	Aston Villa	Chelsea	19%	26%	55%
17/10/2009	Everton	Wolverhampton Wanderers	73%	18%	10%
17/10/2009	Manchester United	Bolton Wanderers	87%	9%	4%
17/10/2009	Portsmouth	Tottenham Hotspur	29%	30%	41%
17/10/2009	Stoke City	West Ham United	42%	30%	28%
17/10/2009	Sunderland	Liverpool	11%	20%	69%
18/10/2009	Blackburn Rovers	Burnley	53%	27%	20%
18/10/2009	Wigan Athletic	Manchester City	32%	30%	38%
19/10/2009	Fulham	Hull City	64%	22%	14%

Total tips for the season: 45 from 76 (59%)
Return on Investment for the season: +24%
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A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 11 Predictions

Week 10 only saw us manage to get one result correct out of the 4 games, but again on footytips the average for the round was just 0.4 correct tips so not a total disaster.  We are still sitting in the top 9% of all tippers there so no cause for concern at all.

Back to the usual 5 games this round, and finally we tip an away team, being Melbourne against Newcastle.  Given Newcastle have had a good record over Melbourne over the years it'll be interesting to see how this games shapes up, but from a statistical point of few previous results between 2 competing clubs are a weak indicator at best.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
16/10/2009	Adelaide United	Sydney FC	Hindmarsh Stadium	40%	27%	34%
17/10/2009	Queensland Roar	Central Coast Mariners	Suncorp Stadium	45%	26%	29%
17/10/2009	North Queensland	New Zealand	Dairy Farmers Stadium	44%	26%	30%
18/10/2009	Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Victory	EnergyAustralia Stadium	35%	27%	39%
18/10/2009	Gold Coast	Perth Glory	Skilled Park	45%	26%	29%

Total tips for the season: 19 from 49 (39%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 10 Predictions

Business as usual last round in theA-League last week - tipping 2 out of 5 results as has been the case in many of the past rounds, but when the average for Round 9 on footytips was just 0.4 tips out of 5, this compares favourably.

The result sees us inside the top 6% of all tippers there, and with 18 tips total for the season this again stacks up well against the site average of 12.4.  Of the 9 rounds played so far, we've managed to tip better than average in 6 of those rounds.

This week only 4 games are being played, with Wellington and Newcastle having the week off, presumably due to New Zealand's involvement in World Cup Qualifiers against Bahrain this week.  As has been the case for most of the season we're tipping all home teams to win, and looking at the match-ups this seems pretty reasonable.  Despite Gold Coast slipping in form of late, it will be interesting to see if the fact this match is more or less a local derby plays an effect.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
9/10/2009	Melbourne Victory	Sydney FC	Telstra Dome	49%	25%	26%
9/10/2009	Perth Glory	Adelaide United	Members Equity Stadium	38%	27%	35%
11/10/2009	Central Coast Mariners	North Queensland	Bluetongue Stadium	44%	26%	30%
11/10/2009	Queensland Roar	Gold Coast	Suncorp Stadium	46%	26%	28%

Total tips for the season: 18 from 45 (40%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 7 Predictions

Yet again tipped 7 in the Premier League last weekend, putting us in the top 6% of all tippers on footytips.  No bets of any size we placed last week so things remain as normal on the betting side.

Again a fairly straight-forward week in terms of tipping.  It will be interesting to see the results of the Aston Villa vs Manchester City game, intuition says that Man City should be rated higher than the model shows.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
3/10/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Tottenham Hotspur	31%	30%	39%
3/10/2009	Burnley	Birmingham City	46%	29%	25%
3/10/2009	Everton	Stoke City	68%	20%	12%
3/10/2009	Hull City	Wigan Athletic	33%	30%	36%
3/10/2009	Manchester United	Sunderland	89%	7%	3%
4/10/2009	West Ham United	Fulham	45%	29%	26%
4/10/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Portsmouth	43%	30%	27%
4/10/2009	Arsenal	Blackburn Rovers	79%	14%	7%
4/10/2009	Chelsea	Liverpool	51%	27%	21%
5/10/2009	Aston Villa	Manchester City	51%	27%	21%

Total tips for the season: 42 from 66 (64%)
Return on Investment for the season: +24%