EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 12 Predictions

We tipped just below average last round, getting 6 of the 12 results correct.  The average on footytips was just 2.6 tips, however the average towards the top of the leaderboard must have been higher as we dropped a couple hundred places - we still sit in the top 3% of all tippers though.

Back to 10 games this round, all looks pretty normal.  A bit suprirsed Liverpool are rated so highly away to Everton, although it is a local derby so maybe the home ground advantage won't be as strong as normal.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
28/11/2009	Aston Villa	Tottenham Hotspur	49%	29%	24%
28/11/2009	Blackburn Rovers	Stoke City	47%	28%	23%
28/11/2009	Fulham	Bolton Wanderers	57%	25%	17%
28/11/2009	Manchester City	Hull City	70%	19%	11%
28/11/2009	Portsmouth	Manchester United	9%	17%	74%
28/11/2009	West Ham United	Burnley	55%	26%	19%
28/11/2009	Wigan Athletic	Sunderland	45%	29%	25%
29/11/2009	Arsenal	Chelsea	36%	31%	34%
29/11/2009	Everton	Liverpool	26%	29%	45%
29/11/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Birmingham City	42%	30%	28%

Total tips for the season: 71 from 129 (55%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 16 Predictions

Last week went just as predicted - unfortunately that prediction was that we might get every tip wrong.  If I can diverge into stats for a second, given I'm tipping at 45% accuracy for the season, odds are 5% in any particular round I'll get 0 right - not that high.  But a in a 27-round season there's a 75% chance I'll tip 0 at least once in the season - so we'll just call last week an expected outlier.  We dropped a little in our standings on footytips but still sit within the top 2% of all tippers.

I'm a bit happier with how the tips shape up this week - on form (which as I've mentioned earlier counts for little in the A-League) the home teams really should be the more fancied.  We'll soon find out

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
27/11/2009	Central Coast Mariners	Perth Glory	Bluetongue Stadium	49%	25%	26%
28/11/2009	Melbourne Victory	Gold Coast	Telstra Dome	51%	25%	24%
28/11/2009	North Queensland	Adelaide United	Dairy Farmers Stadium	40%	27%	34%
29/11/2009	Sydney FC	Newcastle Jets	Sydney Football Stadium	49%	25%	26%
29/11/2009	Queensland Roar	New Zealand	Suncorp Stadium	51%	25%	24%

Total tips for the season: 31 from 74 (42%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 12 Predictions

A decent wek last round, getting 6 of the 10 results correct, against a site average of 2.9 on footytips.  This puts us within the top 2% of all tippers there at the moment.  A small collect on Everton over West Ham more than making up for backing Fulham to beat Wigan.

This round sees 12 games being played, with a catch-up game for Fulham and Blackburn, and the Hull vs Everton game being brought forward from later in the season.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
21/11/2009	Birmingham City	Fulham	34%	31%	36%
21/11/2009	Burnley	Aston Villa	24%	29%	47%
21/11/2009	Chelsea	Wolverhampton Wanderers	90%	7%	3%
21/11/2009	Hull City	West Ham United	29%	30%	41%
21/11/2009	Liverpool	Manchester City	72%	18%	10%
21/11/2009	Manchester United	Everton	74%	17%	9%
21/11/2009	Sunderland	Arsenal	12%	20%	68%
22/11/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Blackburn Rovers	42%	30%	28%
22/11/2009	Stoke City	Portsmouth	48%	28%	23%
22/11/2009	Tottenham Hotspur	Wigan Athletic	63%	23%	14%
25/11/2009	Hull City	Everton	17%	25%	59%
25/11/2009	Fulham	Blackburn Rovers	51%	28%	21%

Total tips for the season: 65 from 117 (56%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 15 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, we tipped 3 out of the 6 results correctly and moved into 143rd spot on footytips out of the 30,000+ A-League tippers there, so well within the top 0.5%.

An interesting round this, we could easily get them all right or all wrong.  We tip Brisbane by a slender margin over Melbourne, the other games the expected winner is more obvious, will be interesting to see how they all pan out though,

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
20/11/2009	Adelaide United	Gold Coast	Hindmarsh Stadium	42%	26%	31%
21/11/2009	Queensland Roar	Melbourne Victory	Suncorp Stadium	36.7%	27%	36.6%
21/11/2009	North Queensland	Central Coast Mariners	Dairy Farmers Stadium	41%	27%	33%
22/11/2009	Newcastle Jets	New Zealand	EnergyAustralia Stadium	47%	26%	27%
22/11/2009	Perth Glory	Sydney FC	Members Equity Stadium	33%	27%	40%

Total tips for the season: 31 from 69 (45%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 11 Predictions

Struggling to get an internet connection in the hotel room at the moment, so while I have 5 minutes in an internet cafe I'll throw up who I've tipped for this week in the EPL and hopefully get the chance to update with probabilities before too long.  Stay tuned:

Tips

• Aston Villa
• Blackburn
• Manchester City
• Tottenham
• Arsenal
• Stoke
• Everton
• Wigan
• Chelsea
• Liverpool

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 14 Predictions

A horror start last week getting the first 3 games wrong, but salvaged something by tipping the correct result in both of Sunday's games.  The average on footytips was also 2.0, and we only moved down 4 spots overall, so still sitting in the top 1% of all tippers there.  Betting performed well, as we noted last week North Queensland were value paying $5+ against Gold Coast, and they won comfortably so a tidy profit there.

This week sees an extra game being played on Wednesday night, with Wellington and Newcastle making up for their deffered game from last month.  Obviously the result from tonight will alter both team's ratings, however the probabilites for their games on Sunday aren't expected to change much.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
4/11/2009	New Zealand	Newcastle Jets	Westpac Stadium	37%	27%	36%
6/11/2009	Adelaide United	Queensland Roar	Hindmarsh Stadium	42%	26%	31%
7/11/2009	Melbourne Victory	Central Coast Mariners	Telstra Dome	53%	24%	23%
7/11/2009	Gold Coast	Sydney FC	Skilled Park	39%	27%	35%
8/11/2009	New Zealand	Perth Glory	Westpac Stadium	41%	27%	33%
8/11/2009	Newcastle Jets	North Queensland	EnergyAustralia Stadium	40%	27%	33%

Total tips for the season: 28 from 63 (44%)