EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 18 Predictions

While we only managed 5 winners for last week, this was good enough to be in the top 4% for the week on on footytips,and moved us into overall 202nd spot.  Our recent good form on the bet has continued with wins to Villa and Manchester United making up for the Everton non-result.

This week there's nothing out of the ordinary - smallish bets on Liverpool and Blackburn at home which should be rather safe.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Arsenal	Stoke City	77%	15%	8%
Birmingham City	Newcastle United	47%	29%	24%
Blackburn Rovers	West Ham United	58%	25%	17%
Blackpool	Tottenham Hotspur	25%	29%	46%
Chelsea	Manchester United	42%	30%	28%
Liverpool	Fulham	70%	19%	11%
Manchester City	Everton	51%	28%	21%
Sunderland	Bolton Wanderers	48%	29%	23%
West Bromwich Albion	Wolverhampton Wanderers	53%	27%	20%
Wigan Athletic	Aston Villa	26%	30%	44%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 19 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, we tipped 5 of 7 winners to move into the top 1% overall on on footytips. To date I can't remember being in the top 1% for both A-League and EPL at the same time - so something of a milestone.  Not such a good week on the betting though, the only highlight being North Queensland's win over Sydney on Wednesday night.

No surprises this week - a couple of small bets on rank outsiders Perth and North Queensland - I'll be happy if either of those get up.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Adelaide United	Melbourne Heart	Hindmarsh Stadium	46%	26%	28%
New Zealand	Newcastle Jets	AMI Stadium	41%	26%	33%
Melbourne Victory	Perth Glory	AAMI Park	50%	25%	25%
North Queensland	Queensland Roar	Dairy Farmers Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Gold Coast	Central Coast Mariners	Skilled Park	43%	26%	31%
Central Coast Mariners	North Queensland	Bluetongue Stadium	50%	25%	25%
Perth Glory	Adelaide United	nib Stadium	44%	26%	30%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 17 Predictions

Tipping 6 winners last week saw us jump about 25 places in the top 1% of all tippers on footytips.  For the first time in a while we made a decent return for the week with bets on Blackburn and Man City saluting.

Not many surprises this week - if anything I think Chelsea looks like a good bet in a London derby

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Aston Villa	West Bromwich Albion	59%	25%	16%
Bolton Wanderers	Blackburn Rovers	41%	30%	29%
Everton	Wigan Athletic	73%	17%	9%
Fulham	Sunderland	45%	29%	25%
Manchester United	Arsenal	58%	25%	17%
Newcastle United	Liverpool	20%	27%	52%
Stoke City	Blackpool	56%	26%	18%
Tottenham Hotspur	Chelsea	25%	29%	46%
West Ham United	Manchester City	23%	29%	48%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Birmingham City	38%	31%	31%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 18 Predictions

Last week we tipped 3 of 6 winners, good enough to move us into the top 2% of all tippers on footytips.  We were unfortunate not to collect a large amount on the Victory game as they led going into the 93rd minute, but then again they were 2-0 down so they were lucky to hit the lead at all.

This week we tip the nominal away team, being Melbourne Victory against their hometown rivals Heart.  Apart from this game, we are betting on all games this weekend, with bets on North Queensland, Wellington, Sydney and Perth.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Adelaide United	North Queensland	Hindmarsh Stadium	47%	25%	28%
Melbourne Heart	Melbourne Victory	AAMI Park	32%	26%	42%
Gold Coast	New Zealand	Skilled Park	52%	24%	24%
Sydney FC	Queensland Roar	Sydney Football Stadium	45%	26%	29%
Perth Glory	Central Coast Mariners	nib Stadium	42%	26%	32%
Newcastle Jets	Gold Coast	EnergyAustralia Stadium	41%	26%	32%
North Queensland	Sydney FC	Dairy Farmers Stadium	40%	26%	34%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 16 Predictions

EPL tipping has gone quite well in the hiatus, we know sit in the top 1% of all tippers on footytips. From memory we've never been so high on the ladder so early into the season - hopefully we can keep this up and really aim high by the end of the season.

No surprises this week in the tips - in fact comparing our probs with the bookie prices there is very little difference - so no bets at all this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Aston Villa	West Bromwich Albion	62%	23%	15%
Bolton Wanderers	Blackburn Rovers	43%	30%	27%
Everton	Wigan Athletic	73%	17%	9%
Fulham	Sunderland	47%	29%	24%
Manchester United	Arsenal	58%	25%	17%
Newcastle United	Liverpool	22%	28%	50%
Stoke City	Blackpool	55%	26%	18%
Tottenham Hotspur	Chelsea	25%	29%	46%
West Ham United	Manchester City	24%	29%	46%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Birmingham City	39%	30%	30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 17 Predictions

It's been a while since I last post on here due to my laptop's surprise sabatical, so thought I'd quivkly post on here while I had the chance.

The A-League tipping has been going well, the betting not so well - although a nice win by North Queesnland away to Gold Coast at odds of $4.60 clawed us back somewhat.

This week sees a 6-game round, as per usual we've gone with all home teams - even in tonight's game featuring Victory hosting table-topping Brisbane, and Wellington hosting a red-hot Adelaide. A decent bet on Melbourne tonight too, though seeing as I'm sitting on a ticket with Brisbane to top the table at the end of the seeing at odds of $51, I won't be too fussed if Brisbane win tonight.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Melbourne Victory	Queensland Roar	AAMI Park	47%	25%	28%
Central Coast Mariners	Sydney FC	Bluetongue Stadium	44%	26%	30%
North Queensland	Newcastle Jets	Dairy Farmers Stadium	46%	26%	28%
New Zealand	Adelaide United	Westpac Stadium	39%	26%	35%
Gold Coast	Melbourne Heart	Skilled Park	46%	26%	28%
Melbourne Heart	Newcastle Jets	AAMI Park	47%	25%	27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 12 Predictions

As with the A-League, it was a sub-standard performance in the EPL last week - only managing to get 4 of 10 games correct - yet that was still good enough for the top 14% for the week, and still top 3% overall on footytips.

 Not many surprises this week, and the only bet being a big one on Chelsea at small odds to beat Sunderland. And I wouldn't mind at all if that bet lost.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Aston Villa	Manchester United	19%	27%	54%
Chelsea	Sunderland	86%	10%	4%
Everton	Arsenal	33%	31%	36%
Manchester City	Birmingham City	68%	21%	12%
Newcastle United	Fulham	43%	30%	27%
Stoke City	Liverpool	21%	28%	51%
Tottenham Hotspur	Blackburn Rovers	57%	25%	17%
West Ham United	Blackpool	49%	28%	23%
Wigan Athletic	West Bromwich Albion	39%	31%	31%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Bolton Wanderers	39%	30%	30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 14 Predictions

Laptop issues meant I missed putting up last week's predictions - for the record it was a below-par week only managing 3 from 7 tips, although we still sit in the top 6% on footytips.

Another 7-game round this week - and a rarity in that we've tipped an away side, with the model saying Central Coast are in good enough form to win away in New Zealand.  Some medium-sized bets on Heart, Newcastle and Perth make this round a little more inetresting.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Gold Coast	Sydney FC	Skilled Park	42%	26%	32%
New Zealand	Central Coast Mariners	Westpac Stadium	36%	26%	37%
Newcastle Jets	Adelaide United	EnergyAustralia Stadium	42%	26%	32%
Melbourne Heart	Queensland Roar	AAMI Park	43%	26%	31%
Perth Glory	Melbourne Victory	nib Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Newcastle Jets	Queensland Roar	EnergyAustralia Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Melbourne Victory	Central Coast Mariners	AAMI Park	47%	25%	28%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 10 Predictions

Last week was more or less and average week, getting 6 or the 10 tips correct.  As it stood the suggested bets of Chelsea and Liverpool both won, I should have stuck by the model it seems.

No surprises this week, it appears a pretty obvious round for tipping.  A few bets have been thrown up though - namely on Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, and Manchester United.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Arsenal	West Ham United	82%	12%	6%
Aston Villa	Birmingham City	62%	23%	14%
Blackburn Rovers	Chelsea	12%	21%	67%
Blackpool	West Bromwich Albion	39%	31%	31%
Bolton Wanderers	Liverpool	21%	28%	51%
Everton	Stoke City	67%	21%	12%
Fulham	Wigan Athletic	59%	25%	16%
Manchester United	Tottenham Hotspur	73%	18%	10%
Newcastle United	Sunderland	44%	30%	26%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Manchester City	22%	28%	49%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 12 Predictions

In a shortened round we tipped 2 for 4 game, and held our position in the top 3% on footytips.

This week we're again tipping all home teams in an extended round of 7 games, although I've had to make some minor adjustments to the model given that two teams are hosting matches on neutral ground.  So Central Coast at Sydney and Newcastle at Port Macquarie I'm treating as not quite a home team, but definitely not away - since they're expected to have the bulk of the crowd behind them and not have to travel as far as their opponents. 

On the betting front we'll likely be having bets on Victory, Sydney FC and North Queensland.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Melbourne Victory	Adelaide United	Etihad Stadium	50%	25%	26%
Central Coast Mariners	Perth Glory	Sydney Football Stadium	43%	26%	31%
Sydney FC	Queensland Roar	Sydney Football Stadium	47%	25%	28%
Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Heart	Port Macquarie	38%	26%	35%
North Queensland	Gold Coast	Dairy Farmers Stadium	42%	26%	32%
New Zealand	Queensland Roar	Westpac Stadium	38%	26%	35%
Perth Glory	Melbourne Heart	nib Stadium	45%	26%	29%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 9 Predictions

Last week we got 5 of the results correct, the 5 we missed all being draws.  So even though we lost one on Manchetser United's draw, we managed to tip everton at home against a flatering Liverpool.  We managed to place in the top 8% for the week and 10% overall on footytips.

No real surprises this week - I've tipped Arsernal away to Manchester City in what should eb the match of the round.  A couple of small bets on Chelsea and Liverpool which I might leave alone, due to the small odds in Chelsea's game and the undertainty around Liverpool.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Birmingham City	Blackpool	51%	28%	21%
Chelsea	Wolverhampton Wanderers	90%	7%	3%
Liverpool	Blackburn Rovers	68%	20%	12%
Manchester City	Arsenal	34%	31%	36%
Stoke City	Manchester United	12%	21%	67%
Sunderland	Aston Villa	31%	31%	39%
Tottenham Hotspur	Everton	44%	30%	26%
West Bromwich Albion	Fulham	42%	30%	28%
West Ham United	Newcastle United	47%	29%	24%
Wigan Athletic	Bolton Wanderers	39%	30%	31%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 11 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, getting 3 results correct - good enough to be in the top 4% for the week and top 3% overall on footytips.  On the betting we broke even, collecting 2 out of 4 bets.

This week's round is back to 5 games, although the 5th game is on a Wednesday.  As usual we tip all home teams - if it ain't broke...

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Adelaide United	New Zealand	Hindmarsh Stadium	50%	25%	25%
Melbourne Heart	Gold Coast	AAMI Park	44%	26%	30%
Queensland Roar	Melbourne Victory	Suncorp Stadium	41%	26%	33%
Perth Glory	Sydney FC	nib Stadium	43%	26%	31%
Newcastle Jets	North Queensland	EnergyAustralia Stadium	44%	26%	30%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, tipping 6 winners - missing out on the 3 draws and Liverpool's shock loss at home to Blackpool.  Against a footytips average of 4.3 this was good enough for the top 4% of the week.  Unfortunately Liverpool's loss hurt us in the hip pocket as well, though wins to Man City and Chelsea went some way to minimize the damage.

 No real surprises this week, or bets either - except I rate Manchester United a lot better than the bookies do (even though they're only offering $1.30) - so a decent bet on them which should hopefully hold up.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	Birmingham City	79%	14%	7%
Aston Villa	Chelsea	18%	26%	57%
Blackburn Rovers	Sunderland	53%	27%	20%
Blackpool	Manchester City	23%	28%	49%
Bolton Wanderers	Stoke City	43%	30%	27%
Everton	Liverpool	39%	30%	31%
Fulham	Tottenham Hotspur	34%	31%	36%
Manchester United	West Bromwich Albion	86%	10%	4%
Newcastle United	Wigan Athletic	53%	27%	20%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	West Ham United	43%	30%	27%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 10 Predictions

We only managed to tip 2 for the last round, yet strangely enough that was good enough for the top 19% for the week on footytips and means we're still in the top 5% overall.  Our switch to the "away" team for the first time this year proved a hex as Melbourne Heart beat Melbourne victory in the first ever true local derby of the A-League.

No doubt spurned by straying outside the line, we go back to tipping all home teams this week.   We're also betting quite a few games as well, with wagers on North Queensland as always, Victory, Newcastle and the Gold Coast.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
North Queensland	Perth Glory	Dairy Farmers Stadium	42%	26%	32%
Melbourne Victory	Sydney FC	Etihad Stadium	46%	26%	28%
Queensland Roar	Newcastle Jets	Suncorp Stadium	49%	25%	26%
New Zealand	Melbourne Heart	Westpac Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Gold Coast	Adelaide United	Skilled Park	46%	26%	29%
Queensland Roar	Central Coast Mariners	Suncorp Stadium	43%	26%	31%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 7 Predictions

Well, last week was officially the worst week I've had since I started tipping the EPL - managing only 1 from 10 tips correct. When Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool all fail to win then you know you're in trouble.  Still, the average on footytips was only 1.6 so it wasn't a complete disaster.

No real surprises this week, all the top teams look to have easy games so with any luck things return to normal this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Birmingham City	Everton	28%	30%	42%
Chelsea	Arsenal	61%	24%	15%
Liverpool	Blackpool	80%	14%	7%
Manchester City	Newcastle United	69%	20%	11%
Stoke City	Blackburn Rovers	42%	30%	28%
Sunderland	Manchester United	11%	19%	70%
Tottenham Hotspur	Aston Villa	48%	29%	23%
West Bromwich Albion	Bolton Wanderers	48%	29%	24%
West Ham United	Fulham	38%	31%	31%
Wigan Athletic	Wolverhampton Wanderers	42%	30%	28%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 9 Predictions

Last week got off to a flyer, tipping the first 3 results correct, then we missed the following 3 due to them being draws.  Small bets on Newcastle and North Queensland failed to get up, but we're still well up for the season so nothing to worry about there.

This round goes back to 5 games, with the Melbourne derby being pushed back a week due to the AFL grand final replay.  This games marks the first game this year I've tipped an away side, although only on a technicality as it's Heart's home game, and we're tipping Victory.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Gold Coast	New Zealand	Skilled Park	50%	25%	25%
Central Coast Mariners	North Queensland	Bluetongue Stadium	49%	25%	26%
Perth Glory	Queensland Roar	nib Stadium	44%	26%	30%
Sydney FC	Adelaide United	Sydney Football Stadium	48%	25%	27%
Melbourne Heart	Melbourne Victory	AAMI Park	32%	26%	41%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week in the A-League, getting 3 results correct and moving into the top 3% overall on footytips  Also good wins by Newcastle and Melbourne Heart made it a profitable week.

Not many surprises this week, again going with all home teams.  And no betting either - so we can just sit back and hope that home teams win for tipping.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Gold Coast	Newcastle Jets	Skilled Park	48%	25%	27%
New Zealand	North Queensland	Westpac Stadium	42%	26%	32%
Adelaide United	Perth Glory	Hindmarsh Stadium	43%	26%	31%
Queensland Roar	Melbourne Heart	Suncorp Stadium	45%	26%	29%
Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Victory	EnergyAustralia Stadium	37%	26%	36%
Sydney FC	Gold Coast	Sydney Football Stadium	47%	25%	27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Not a lot to report in the EPL - tipped 5 from 10 results last week which was par for the course.

A few bets on the home teams this week are looming, particularly Liverpool and Birmingham

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	West Bromwich Albion	81%	13%	6%
Birmingham City	Wigan Athletic	57%	26%	17%
Blackpool	Blackburn Rovers	35%	31%	34%
Bolton Wanderers	Manchester United	10%	18%	72%
Fulham	Everton	32%	31%	37%
Liverpool	Sunderland	76%	16%	8%
Manchester City	Chelsea	20%	27%	54%
Newcastle United	Stoke City	45%	29%	26%
West Ham United	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	29%	45%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Aston Villa	27%	30%	43%

AFL 2010 Season - Brownlow Medal Predictions

Here are my Brownlow predictions for this year. Bit of a strange one this year as I more or less only rate 2 players any chance to win it - Swan and Ablett.

This year I've got 50 individual player stats at my disposal, for every player in every game. Obviously not all of these stats will come into the model but it is a big increase in previous years where I had maybe a dozen stats.

If you download the link below it should open a spreadsheet with the usual Brownlow betting options available - overall winners, number of winners, winning numbers of votes, top votegetter in the team, and various head to head and group betting options. With a lot more effort then it would seem it takes, I've been able to provide - for every player in every game - their chance of polling 3, 2 or 1 votes - which obviously leads to their expected votes per game, and also the chance that player receives any votes. With this you can narrow down to certain players, and on the night track to see if they are ahead or behind expectations - potentially useful for those who want to bet in-play.

Like I say, never before has my model come up with only 2 possibilities, though I've looked game by game and seem pretty happy with what the model is coming up with. I'm pretty hesitant to release these because of this situation, but my model has been pretty good in the past - as always though I can't stress highly enough that these predictions should at best be used as a guide, and certainly not the be all and end all in terms of placing your own Brownlow bets.

So how has the model gone in the past? Pretty good if I say so myself. Last year I rated Ablett a $1.33 chance - much shorter than the $3 available on the day. There's also a lot of value to be found in the exotic options - for example last year I rated Winderlich a $5.80 chance to win Essendon's count, big value seeing as I was able to snap up $34 on the day - even though he ended up sharing the honours with Jobe Watson, it was still a great result.

Anyway have a browse and if there's any queries please let me know. Also if there are any other betting options you'd like to see let me know too and I'll do my best to update the sheet.

2010 Brownlow Medal Predictions

Player	Exp Votes	% Chance
Dane Swan - CW	32.5	50.2%
Gary Ablett - GE	32.3	49.5%
Luke Hodge - HW	19.0	Daylight
Leigh Montagna - SK	18.3	Daylight
Matthew Boyd - WB	17.3	Daylight
Chris Judd - CA	16.2	Daylight
Brent Harvey - KA	15.7	Daylight
Brendon Goddard - SK	15.2	Daylight
Paul Chapman - GE	13.9	Daylight
Michael Barlow - FR	13.6	Daylight
Jonathan Brown - BL	13.2	Daylight
Scott Thompson - AD	12.4	Daylight
Joel Selwood - GE	11.9	Daylight
Aaron Sandilands - FR	11.3	Daylight
Matthew Pavlich - FR	11.2	Daylight
Adam Cooney - WB	11.0	Daylight
Adam Goodes - SY	10.9	Daylight
Lance Franklin - HW	10.8	Daylight
Scott Pendlebury - CW	10.6	Daylight
Nick Dal Santo - SK	10.6	Daylight
Andrew Swallow - KA	10.2	Daylight
Kieren Jack - SY	10.2	Daylight
Jobe Watson - ES	10.0	Daylight

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

The previous round prior to the international break saw 5 of 10 games predicted correctly, pretty much par for the course according to footytips. No bets at all last round, so nothing to report there.

This week sees no real surprises, a small bet on Arsenal perhaps although at short odds so not really much action this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	Bolton Wanderers	81%	13%	6%
Birmingham City	Liverpool	20%	27%	53%
Everton	Manchester United	22%	28%	49%
Fulham	Wolverhampton Wanderers	55%	26%	19%
Manchester City	Blackburn Rovers	60%	24%	16%
Newcastle United	Blackpool	54%	27%	19%
Stoke City	Aston Villa	30%	30%	40%
West Bromwich Albion	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	30%	44%
West Ham United	Chelsea	9%	17%	74%
Wigan Athletic	Sunderland	40%	30%	30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Another decent week last week - getting3 of the 5 results correct and also landing the decent bet on Central Coast over Melbourne on the Friday night.

This week sees a 6-game round for the first time this season, with Melbourne Victory playing Wellington on Wednesday.  Again we tip all home teams, although only just tipping Wellington slightly over Sydney.  Not much in terms of betting this week, technically we'd be betting on Newcastle against Adelaide, although given their club's situation at the moment, I'll be sitting that one out.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Central Coast Mariners	Melbourne Heart	Bluetongue Stadium	47%	25%	28%
New Zealand	Sydney FC	Westpac Stadium	36.9%	26%	36.7%
Adelaide United	Newcastle Jets	Hindmarsh Stadium	48%	25%	27%
Melbourne Victory	Queensland Roar	AAMI Park	48%	25%	27%
Perth Glory	Gold Coast	nib Stadium	45%	26%	29%
Melbourne Victory	New Zealand	AAMI Park	66%	12%	22%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 5 Predictions

Back to an average week in tipping, only getting the Friday night result correct last week.  However the bet on that game made another profitable week, thanks in part to avoiding the Melbourne Heart game which would have ended in heartbreak, given Perth scored a dubious 94th minute penatly to square it up.

This week as usual we tip all home games, with a decent bet tonight on Central Coast -should that get up then it will be another profitable week.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Central Coast Mariners	Melbourne Victory	Bluetongue Stadium	42%	26%	31%
Melbourne Heart	North Queensland	AAMI Park	47%	25%	28%
Sydney FC	Adelaide United	Sydney Football Stadium	49%	25%	26%
Newcastle Jets	Queensland Roar	EnergyAustralia Stadium	41%	26%	33%
Perth Glory	New Zealand	nib Stadium	51%	24%	25%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

A pretty average week in EPL tipping, getting 5 of the games right and losing both the bets on Everton and West Ham.  Still, with 10 tips so far for the year we're already sitting in the top 15% on footytips, and that will only improve as the season progresses.

Not much to get excited about this week - I've tipped all the favourites, and for the first time in a long time there's no games suggested for me to bet on.  Probably not such a bad thing that from time to time my model is pretty close to what the bookies are saying.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Aston Villa	Everton	41%	30%	29%
Blackburn Rovers	Arsenal	20%	27%	53%
Blackpool	Fulham	35%	31%	35%
Bolton Wanderers	Birmingham City	43%	30%	27%
Chelsea	Stoke City	87%	9%	4%
Liverpool	West Bromwich Albion	78%	15%	7%
Manchester United	West Ham United	88%	9%	4%
Sunderland	Manchester City	25%	29%	46%
Tottenham Hotspur	Wigan Athletic	75%	16%	8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Newcastle United	44%	30%	27%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

Finally a great week in the A-League last week - getting the first 4 games correct, and only missing out on a perfect week due to the drawn game between Melbourne Victory and North Queensland - one of the stranger games I've ever watched with 3 penalties and 2 red cards awarded.  Still, our win on Brisbane Roar over Sydney more than made up for the 2 smaller bets which lost, making it a great week overall.

As usual we're tipping all home games this week, and betting again on Brisbane and North Queensland.  Melbourne Heart are technically a bet as well, though I might give this game a miss and wait til the Heart have played a few more games before betting on them.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Queensland Roar	New Zealand	Suncorp Stadium	51%	25%	25%
North Queensland	Adelaide United	Dairy Farmers Stadium	44%	26%	30%
Sydney FC	Central Coast Mariners	Sydney Football Stadium	46%	26%	28%
Gold Coast	Melbourne Victory	Skilled Park	41%	26%	33%
Melbourne Heart	Perth Glory	AAMI Park	44%	26%	30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

Well at least last week we improved in the A-League tipping, getting 1 game right were previously we had none.  That there has been 7 draws in the 10 games so far hasn't helped, as my rule of thumb is to never tip a draw.

Still, betting wise there were nice wins to be had on North Queensland and Perth against last year's grand finalists Sydney and Melbourne respectively.

This week sees us tipping all home teams again, and betting on Newcastle, Brisbane and North Queensland.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Adelaide United	Melbourne Heart	Hindmarsh Stadium	44%	26%	30%
Perth Glory	Newcastle Jets	nib Stadium	49%	25%	26%
Queensland Roar	Sydney FC	Suncorp Stadium	42%	26%	31%
New Zealand	Central Coast Mariners	Westpac Stadium	37%	26%	36%
Melbourne Victory	North Queensland	AAMI Park	51%	24%	24%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Apologies for not  posting my picks for the first week of the EPL - for the record we had 5 correct tips when the average on footytips was 4.5.

This week the only real curve-ball is we've tipped Liverpool to win away to Manchester City - I still don't rate City as high as the bookies, they'll need to start putting in some decent consistent performances against clubs like Liverpool before I do.

Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
Arsenal	Blackpool	83%	11%	5%
Birmingham City	Blackburn Rovers	40%	30%	30%
Everton	Wolverhampton Wanderers	72%	18%	10%
Fulham	Manchester United	13%	21%	66%
Manchester City	Liverpool	32%	31%	37%
Newcastle United	Aston Villa	25%	29%	46%
Stoke City	Tottenham Hotspur	29%	30%	41%
West Bromwich Albion	Sunderland	45%	29%	25%
West Ham United	Bolton Wanderers	49%	29%	23%
Wigan Athletic	Chelsea	7%	14%	78%

EPL 2010-11 Season Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming English Premier League season.

The predictions come about through simulating the entire fixture for the upcoming season 100,000 times, based on ratings that are updated after each game.  Ratings at the start of the season are based on those at the end of last season - so things like off-season signings and pre-season form aren't taken into account.

Again it looks as though Chelsea and Manchester United are the only value for winning the Premiership - this was the case at the start of last season, and before too Long these were pretty safe bets.

Isolating a few other teams - Manchester City and Tottenham I've predicted to not go as well as last year, whereas the Merseysiders in Liverpool and Everton I've lobbed as going better.  Indeed, a quick guide to the points I expect teams to get is pretty close to the average they received in the last two season, so in a sense I expect a sort of regression to the mean rather than sustained improvement.  Tottenham improved 20 points last season, whereas Liverpool dipped 20 points - it's more than likely these teams will not keep those rates going this season.

That Manchester City are third favourite for the Premiership I find laughable - they finished 20 points behind winners Chelsea, and I'd find it impressive if they were able to bridge that gap in the space of one season.  Still, I suppose stranger things have happened.

Team	Points	Pr Win	Pr Win (Excl Big 4)
Chelsea	88.5	45.4%	N/A
Manchester United	87.8	41.1%	N/A
Arsenal	77.4	7.5%	N/A
Liverpool	74.9	4.8%	N/A
Everton	65.3	0.6%	35.9%
Tottenham Hotspur	61.5	0.3%	21.8%
Aston Villa	60.8	0.2%	19.5%
Manchester City	60	0.2%	17.3%
Blackburn Rovers	47.2	0.0%	1.8%
Fulham	45.4	0.0%	1.2%
Stoke City	43.1	0.0%	0.7%
Birmingham City	41.5	0.0%	0.5%
West Ham United	40.4	0.0%	0.3%
Sunderland	39.1	0.0%	0.3%
Newcastle United	38.1	0.0%	0.2%
West Bromwich Albion	38	0.0%	0.2%
Bolton Wanderers	37.9	0.0%	0.2%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	36.6	0.0%	0.1%
Wigan Athletic	34.4	0.0%	0.1%
Blackpool	32.4	0.0%	0.0%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Well off to a pretty ordinairy start, not getting a tip right out of the 5 opening games.  The fact that 4 of the games were draws doesn't help, as I never tip a draw in the A-league.

So onto Week 2 now, a bit of a surprise in that we've tipped North Queensland to beat Sydney FC, and they did impress in a 3-3 draw over in Perth, so with any luck they can cause a boilover here.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
New Zealand	Gold Coast	Westpac Stadium	39%	26%	35%
Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Heart	EnergyAustralia Stadium	41%	26%	32%
North Queensland	Sydney FC	Dairy Farmers Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Melbourne Victory	Perth Glory	AAMI Park	49%	25%	26%
Central Coast Mariners	Adelaide United	Bluetongue Stadium	48%	25%	27%

A-League 2010 - 11 Season - Week 1 Predictions

Here are the first lot of tips for the 2010/11 season of the Hyundai A-League.  I've revised the model slightly over the off-season such that last year we would have finished in the top 10 of all tippers on footytips. Mind you we did actually finish 52nd so the old model was nothing to sneeze at.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Melbourne Heart	Central Coast Mariners	AAMI Park	42.6%	26.1%	31.3%
Adelaide United	Newcastle Jets	Hindmarsh Stadium	47.2%	25.3%	27.4%
Perth Glory	North Queensland	nib Stadium	47.4%	25.3%	27.3%
Sydney FC	Melbourne Victory	Sydney Football Stadium	43.3%	26.0%	30.7%
Gold Coast	Queensland Roar	Skilled Park	44.3%	25.9%	29.9%

Hyundai A-League 2010 - 11 Season Predictions

Well it's been a while since I posted here - the letdown after the World Cup and general laziness in getting AFL tips up here a major factor.

But now that soccer / football seasons are about to start worldwide, motivation is high.  Also because these models seem to provide the best mix of betting profitability and easiness to update.


So here are my thoughts on the upcoming A-League season, starting tonight when new team Melbourne Heart take on Central Coast.  The table below may raise a few eyebrows, not so much the top 2 teams but just underneath.  Apart from Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC, there really hasn't been a team which has performed consistently season after season - as form is hard to come by and recent form tends to be over-exaggerated.  As such, I've rated teams like Central Coast and Brisbane Roar higher than the market does as they have done relatively well over time, and weren't too far from the finals last year.

Best of luck to those who follow these predictions!

Team	Avg Points	Pr Win Minor	Pr Win GF
Melbourne Victory	50.8	28.3%	24.4%
Sydney FC	47.9	17.7%	17.0%
Central Coast Mariners	46.1	13.0%	13.1%
Perth Glory	44.1	8.5%	9.0%
Queensland Roar	44.1	8.5%	9.2%
Gold Coast	43.2	7.0%	7.9%
Melbourne Heart	42.5	6.2%	7.1%
Adelaide United	41.5	4.9%	5.4%
North Queensland	39.7	3.2%	3.7%
Newcastle Jets	37.7	1.8%	2.3%
New Zealand	34.7	0.7%	0.9%

World Cup Match Predictions - Final and 3rd-Place Playoff

Here are the predictions for the final of the World Cup, along with the 3rd-place playoff.

The model has gone fanatstically well throughout the World Cup - making around 30% ROI for the tournament, and even more if you were smart about which of the group games to bet on.

Probably not a lot of action betting-wise.  The Dutch are slight value as they have been throughout the tournament, so you could do a lot worse then back them to win in the 90 minutes.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Final	Netherlands	Spain	31.7%	33.9%	34.5%
3rd Place	Uruguay	Germany	18.3%	29.6%	52.1%

World Cup Match Predictions - Semi Finals

The Quarter-finals were another great result for the model - with collects on the wins by Germany, Netherlands and Spain.

So down to the last 4 now, and for the most part the model is in line with the bookmakers.  There may be an opportunity for a small bet on the draw in the Germany - Spain game, but you'll have to shop around to get good odds.

As always remember these predictions are to the end of 90 minutes.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Semi Finals	Uruguay	Netherlands	14%	26%	59%
Semi Finals	Germany	Spain	28%	33%	38%

World Cup Match Predictions - Quarter Finals

Down to the last 8 of the World Cup now, and the soccer model shows no signs of slowing down. Big bets, abd big wins, on Spain and teh Netherlands enough to see the model win 26% ROI alone on the Round of 16 games.

Keep in mind the predictions below are for the result at the end of 90 minutes

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Quarter Finals	Uruguay	Ghana	55%	28%	16%
Quarter Finals	Netherlands	Brazil	26%	33%	41%
Quarter Finals	Argentina	Germany	35%	34%	31%
Quarter Finals	Paraguay	Spain	8%	18%	74%

World Cup Match Predictions - Round of 16

Now half the teams have been eliminated, and we're down to the knockout stages.  As expected the 3rd round of games wasn't as profitable as the previous rounds - although they still broke even, and indeed if you were smart and left out dubious games like Mexico vs Uruguay, France vs South Africa and Portugal vs Brazil where the results didn't affect who went through, then you woudl have been well in front again.

The predictions below are for the games in the round of 16 - and keep in mind these predictions are for the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation time - pretty much all bookmakers will offer this market.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Round of 16	Uruguay	Korea Republic	53%	29%	18%
Round of 16	Mexico	Argentina	22%	32%	46%
Round of 16	USA	Ghana	43%	33%	24%
Round of 16	England	Germany	35%	34%	31%
Round of 16	Netherlands	Slovakia	82%	13%	5%
Round of 16	Japan	Paraguay	30%	34%	36%
Round of 16	Brazil	Chile	61%	26%	14%
Round of 16	Portugal	Spain	14%	26%	59%

World Cup Match Predictions - Round 3

Well the model has gone fantastically  so far in the World Cup - making 54% ROI on the first 32 games played, and that includes backing favourites, long-shots and the draw as well.  The graph below shows how the profits have kept coming in betting to a constant kelly bank

Below are the predictions for the round 3 games of the World Cup - though I would advise to be extremely cautious bettign on any of these games given the stage of the tournament.  Some teams are already eliminated and will liekly play some 2nd-string players.  Some teams are assured of going through and will liekly rest key players.  And then there's the case of Group A where a draw between Mexico and Uruguay will see them both through at the expense of France and hosts South Africa -and to make thing even more interesting a win by Mexico would see them top the group and avoid Argentina in the round of 16 - so really who knows what will happen tonight.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Group	Mexico	Uruguay	40%	33%	27%
Group	France	South Africa	39%	33%	28%
Group	Nigeria	Korea Republic	22%	32%	46%
Group	Greece	Argentina	11%	22%	67%
Group	Slovenia	England	11%	22%	67%
Group	USA	Algeria	65%	24%	12%
Group	Ghana	Germany	14%	26%	59%
Group	Australia	Serbia	23%	32%	45%
Group	Slovakia	Italy	10%	21%	70%
Group	Paraguay	New Zealand	63%	24%	12%
Group	Denmark	Japan	41%	33%	26%
Group	Cameroon	Netherlands	5%	12%	84%
Group	Portugal	Brazil	11%	22%	67%
Group	Korea DPR	Côte d'Ivoire	12%	23%	65%
Group	Chile	Spain	18%	29%	52%
Group	Switzerland	Honduras	46%	32%	22%

World Cup Tournament Predictions

As with the match predictions, these are better late than never.

Below I present the predictions of every team to make every stage of the World Cup.  I simulate the tournament 100,000 times, with each team's rating after every simulated match going up or down depending on the result of that game - hence if a minnow happens to progress deeply into the tournament their rating will have gone up accordingly.

Shown below is the probability of every team to top their group, qualify for the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, final, and win the World Cup.  I'll update these as often as I remember to, but please note when I have said these predictions were last updated.

Current Prior to games on Monday 5th July

Group A	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Mexico	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
France	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Uruguay	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	22.7%	28.1%	8.8%
South Africa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group B	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Argentina	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Korea Republic	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Greece	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Nigeria	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group C	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
England	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
USA	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Slovenia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Algeria	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group D	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Germany	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	33.8%	44.9%	23.6%
Serbia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Australia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Ghana	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group E	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Netherlands	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	14.5%	71.9%	36.7%
Denmark	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Japan	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Cameroon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group F	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Italy	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Paraguay	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Slovakia	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
New Zealand	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group G	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Brazil	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Portugal	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Côte d'Ivoire	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Korea DPR	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group H	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Spain	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	29.1%	55.1%	30.9%
Chile	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Switzerland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Honduras	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

World Cup Match Predictions

A little late I'll admit, but better late than never.  I'd recently gone over how my predictions for the World Cup matches would have gone and was blown away - I'd be in front to the tune of 80% ROI so far - had I bet from the start.  Sadly I only started better as of last night - but still great wins to Greece over Nigeria and Mexico over France have shown some material profit.  Also previously wins to South Korea over Greece, Slovenia over Algeria, Japan over Cameroon and New Zealand's opening draw have seen the profitability of the model sky-rocket.


As they say though, talk is cheap.  So without further ado here are my predictions for the group matches of the world cup.  The matches in yellow below will changes slightly depending on the results of each team's previous game - and this will be updated in time.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Group	South Africa	Mexico	23%	32%	45%
Group	Uruguay	France	31%	34%	35%
Group	Argentina	Nigeria	64%	24%	12%
Group	Korea Republic	Greece	49%	31%	20%
Group	England	USA	58%	27%	15%
Group	Algeria	Slovenia	17%	28%	55%
Group	Germany	Australia	65%	23%	12%
Group	Serbia	Ghana	39%	33%	27%
Group	Netherlands	Denmark	74%	18%	8%
Group	Japan	Cameroon	39%	33%	28%
Group	Italy	Paraguay	52%	30%	18%
Group	New Zealand	Slovakia	23%	32%	45%
Group	Côte d'Ivoire	Portugal	23%	32%	45%
Group	Brazil	Korea DPR	93%	5%	2%
Group	Honduras	Chile	16%	28%	57%
Group	Spain	Switzerland	79%	15%	6%
Group	South Africa	Uruguay	28%	34%	38%
Group	France	Mexico	29%	34%	37%
Group	Greece	Nigeria	31%	34%	36%
Group	Argentina	Korea Republic	50%	30%	19%
Group	Germany	Serbia	59%	27%	15%
Group	Slovenia	USA	21%	31%	48%
Group	England	Algeria	86%	10%	4%
Group	Ghana	Australia	33%	34%	33%
Group	Netherlands	Japan	77%	16%	7%
Group	Cameroon	Denmark	24%	33%	43%
Group	Slovakia	Paraguay	20%	30%	50%
Group	Italy	New Zealand	79%	15%	6%
Group	Brazil	Côte d'Ivoire	78%	16%	6%
Group	Portugal	Korea DPR	75%	18%	8%
Group	Chile	Switzerland	46%	32%	22%
Group	Spain	Honduras	79%	15%	6%
Group	France	South Africa	45%	32%	23%
Group	Nigeria	Korea Republic	22%	32%	46%
Group	Greece	Argentina	11%	23%	67%
Group	Slovenia	England	9%	20%	72%
Group	USA	Algeria	69%	21%	10%
Group	Ghana	Germany	11%	23%	65%
Group	Australia	Serbia	28%	33%	39%
Group	Slovakia	Italy	10%	21%	69%
Group	Paraguay	New Zealand	62%	25%	13%
Group	Denmark	Japan	37%	34%	29%
Group	Cameroon	Netherlands	5%	14%	81%
Group	Portugal	Brazil	10%	22%	68%
Group	Korea DPR	Côte d'Ivoire	12%	24%	64%
Group	Chile	Spain	17%	29%	54%
Group	Switzerland	Honduras	48%	31%	21%