EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 27 Predictions

Last week we tipped as expected, getting 7 of the 12 results correct, and drop slightly on the footytips ladder to 420th overall. 

This week saw a mid-week game which Manchester United won easily as expected, and 8 games over the weekend.  The only real surprise being how high we rate Chelsea over Man City, though the bookmakers have priced them pretty close to how I rate them.  Also Fulham I've tipped over Sunderland, who are well favoured with the bookies.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
23/02/2010	Manchester United	West Ham United	83%	11%	5%
27/02/2010	Birmingham City	Wigan Athletic	52%	27%	21%
27/02/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Wolverhampton Wanderers	50%	28%	22%
27/02/2010	Burnley	Portsmouth	41%	30%	29%
27/02/2010	Chelsea	Manchester City	78%	15%	7%
27/02/2010	Stoke City	Arsenal	15%	24%	61%
28/02/2010	Liverpool	Blackburn Rovers	78%	15%	7%
28/02/2010	Sunderland	Fulham	31%	30%	38%
28/02/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Everton	43%	30%	28%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 3 Predictions

Not a great week last week, tipping 4 of the 7 results correctly though hopefully a lot of that is down to early season jitters - given a few rounds the ratings of teams should smooth out.

This week we tip all bar one of the bookie favourites, with the model going for the Blues away to Qld despite being slight outsiders.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
26/02/2010	Crusaders	Sharks	69%	28%
27/02/2010	Stormers	Brumbies	58%	39%
27/02/2010	Hurricanes	Lions	93%	6%
27/02/2010	Reds	Blues	36%	61%
27/02/2010	W Force	Chiefs	37%	59%
28/02/2010	Cheetahs	Highlanders	49%	48%
28/02/2010	Bulls	Waratahs	70%	27%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 2 Predictions

A great start to the season as we managed to get 6 of the 7 result correct - the one we missed ended up losing by a solitary point.

This week is a bit of a mixed bag - a couple of games we've gone against the bookies prices, espicially the last game between the Stormers and Waratahs.  The Waratchs we rated a much better team, however the Stormers have apparently picked up some of the better rugby players going around, so the model will obviously need to catch up with this if their results go as expected.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
19/02/2009	Highlanders	Blues	46%	51%
19/02/2009	Reds	Crusaders	13%	86%
20/02/2009	Sharks	Cheetahs	91%	8%
20/02/2009	Lions	Chiefs	20%	78%
20/02/2009	Hurricanes	W Force	83%	15%
21/02/2009	Bulls	Brumbies	74%	24%
21/02/2009	Stormers	Waratahs	43%	53%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 1 Predictions

Another great week for tipping in the A-League, again getting 4 of the 5 results correct.  We missed out on tipping the Newcastle vs Adelaide game, but we rated Adelaide above the odds so the bet we had on them more than makes up for missing the tip.

So with that we finish the regular season in 81st place overall on footytips, out of the 31,000+ A-Aleague tippers, managing to get just over 49% of the tips correct - which highlights how I've said all along how hard it is to tip correct results, but at least we're doing it better than the vast majority of other tippers.

So onwards to the finals.  As I mentioend in the previous A-League post, the model is built only on regular season games - as such it won't take into account any nuances that occur in finals matches (particularly those played over 2 legs), and in any case they will only predict the result at the end of 90 minutes - not at teh end of extra time.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
16/02/2010	Melbourne Victory	Sydney FC	Etihad Stadium	47%	26%	28%
20/02/2010	Gold Coast	Newcastle Jets	Skilled Park	48%	25%	27%
21/02/2010	New Zealand	Perth Glory	Westpac Stadium	42%	26%	31%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 26 Predictions

EDIT - weekend matches now updated after mid-week games

Last week we tipped slightly worse than expected, getting 5 of the 10 results correct - yet we moved up slightly to 387th overall on footytips.

this weeks sees 12 games overall, with a couple of mid-week fixtures scheduled for games postponed earlier in the season - we'll update the weekend predictions after the mid-week games have been played.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
16/02/2010	Stoke City	Manchester City	32%	30%	37%
17/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Bolton Wanderers	45%	29%	26%
20/02/2010	Arsenal	Sunderland	85%	11%	5%
20/02/2010	Everton	Manchester United	21%	27%	52%
20/02/2010	Portsmouth	Stoke City	41%	30%	29%
20/02/2010	West Ham United	Hull City	60%	24%	16%
20/02/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Chelsea	8%	15%	78%
21/02/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Bolton Wanderers	50%	28%	22%
21/02/2010	Aston Villa	Burnley	74%	17%	9%
21/02/2010	Fulham	Birmingham City	53%	27%	20%
21/02/2010	Manchester City	Liverpool	25%	29%	46%
21/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	29%	45%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 26 Predictions

Another great week on the A-League - managing to get 4 of the 5 results correct and move up to 149th place overall on footytips. Also a great week for the betting, getting big results on Central Coast, Adelaide and Wellington.

Hopefully a good week this week will see us finish the regular season in the top 100 overall out of 31,000+ tippers, a pretty good result for league that is notoriously hard to predict.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
12/02/2010	New Zealand	Central Coast Mariners	Westpac Stadium	41%	27%	33%
12/02/2010	Newcastle Jets	Adelaide United	EnergyAustralia Stadium	42%	26%	31%
13/02/2010	Perth Glory	Queensland Roar	Members Equity Stadium	38%	27%	36%
13/02/2010	North Queensland	Gold Coast	Dairy Farmers Stadium	37%	27%	36%
14/02/2010	Sydney FC	Melbourne Victory	Sydney Football Stadium	37%	27%	36%

I'll still be providing tips through the finals but with the caveat that my model is only built on games from the regular season - and as such are only useful in predicting the result at the end of 90 minutes.

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 1 Predictions

The Super 14 season starts tonight, so time to start publishing my predictions.  Last year I posted some analysis here on how well the model had gone, and also left some suggestions as too how I'd update the model.  Well it's fair to say it was a productive summer, because I haven't touched the model since then.

Still, the model as it was then seemed to be firing off some very nice profits, keeping two things in mind.  Firstly, betting on away teams turned out more profitable then betting on home teams, and secondly it seemed to take a couple of weeks for the model to find its feet before consistent profits started.

On that last point, a couple of off-season changes won't automatically be reflected in the model, especially for these Round 1 predictions.  The Western Force for example have been heavily hit by injuries and players leaving, so likely their odds below aren't a true reflection of their ability just yet.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
12/02/2010	Blues	Hurricanes	46%	50%
12/02/2010	W Force	Brumbies	49%	47%
13/02/2010	Cheetahs	Bulls	20%	78%
13/02/2010	Crusaders	Highlanders	89%	10%
13/02/2010	Reds	Waratahs	22%	76%
14/02/2010	Lions	Stormers	36%	61%
14/02/2010	Sharks	Chiefs	65%	33%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 25 Predictions

Apologies for missing the overnight games, I had no idea they were on til late at night.  For the record we had 2 of the overnight games tipped correctly.

Last week we tipped pretty much on average, getting 6 of the 11 games correct and holding level on footytips.

The remaining games this week seem fairly straightforward - perhaps surprising that everton are rated as high as they are - we'll soon find out.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
9/02/2010	Manchester City	Bolton Wanderers	63%	23%	14%
9/02/2010	Fulham	Burnley	62%	23%	15%
9/02/2010	Portsmouth	Sunderland	48%	28%	23%
9/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Stoke City	41%	30%	29%
10/02/2010	Arsenal	Liverpool	46%	29%	25%
10/02/2010	West Ham United	Birmingham City	45%	29%	25%
10/02/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tottenham Hotspur	22%	28%	51%
10/02/2010	Aston Villa	Manchester United	21%	27%	52%
10/02/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Hull City	58%	25%	17%
10/02/2010	Everton	Chelsea	19%	26%	55%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 25 Predictions

An extremely good week last week in the A-League - tipping 4 of the 5 results correctly and only narrowly missing out on a clean-sweep as we'd tipped Melbourne instead of North Queensland by the narrowest or margins.  The result sees us move from 387th to 216th on the overall ladder on footytips.

This week we've gone with all the home teams, and also bet on every game for the first time this year - the teams backed are North Queensland, Central Coast, Adelaide, Perth and Wellington. 

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
5/02/2010	Melbourne Victory	North Queensland	Etihad Stadium	54%	24%	22%
6/02/2010	Central Coast Mariners	Newcastle Jets	Bluetongue Stadium	40%	27%	33%
6/02/2010	Adelaide United	Queensland Roar	Hindmarsh Stadium	38%	27%	35%
7/02/2010	Sydney FC	Perth Glory	Parramatta Stadium	50%	25%	25%
7/02/2010	Gold Coast	New Zealand	Skilled Park	52%	24%	24%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 24 Predictions

A pretty poor round, only managing to get 4 of the 11 results correct and sliding to 373rd place on footytips.  For some reason the Hull - Chelsea Tuesday game took over the place of the originally scheduled West Ham - Wolverhampton game - no great concern though as it ended in a draw so we wouldn't have got that tip regardless.

This week sees another 11 games played starting with Fulham against Pompey overnight.  Hopefully a week to bounce back and make up for some of the lost ground.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
3/02/2010	Fulham	Portsmouth	56%	26%	18%
6/02/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Fulham	37%	30%	33%
6/02/2010	Burnley	West Ham United	34%	31%	35%
6/02/2010	Hull City	Manchester City	22%	28%	51%
6/02/2010	Liverpool	Everton	64%	22%	14%
6/02/2010	Manchester United	Portsmouth	88%	8%	4%
6/02/2010	Stoke City	Blackburn Rovers	43%	30%	27%
6/02/2010	Sunderland	Wigan Athletic	44%	30%	27%
6/02/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Aston Villa	44%	29%	26%
7/02/2010	Birmingham City	Wolverhampton Wanderers	56%	26%	18%
7/02/2010	Chelsea	Arsenal	56%	26%	18%