Super 14 2010 Season - Round 1 Predictions

The Super 14 season starts tonight, so time to start publishing my predictions.  Last year I posted some analysis here on how well the model had gone, and also left some suggestions as too how I'd update the model.  Well it's fair to say it was a productive summer, because I haven't touched the model since then.

Still, the model as it was then seemed to be firing off some very nice profits, keeping two things in mind.  Firstly, betting on away teams turned out more profitable then betting on home teams, and secondly it seemed to take a couple of weeks for the model to find its feet before consistent profits started.

On that last point, a couple of off-season changes won't automatically be reflected in the model, especially for these Round 1 predictions.  The Western Force for example have been heavily hit by injuries and players leaving, so likely their odds below aren't a true reflection of their ability just yet.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
12/02/2010	Blues	Hurricanes	46%	50%
12/02/2010	W Force	Brumbies	49%	47%
13/02/2010	Cheetahs	Bulls	20%	78%
13/02/2010	Crusaders	Highlanders	89%	10%
13/02/2010	Reds	Waratahs	22%	76%
14/02/2010	Lions	Stormers	36%	61%
14/02/2010	Sharks	Chiefs	65%	33%