EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 31 Predictions

Last week saw us tip 7 from 11 and move up to 457th place overall on the footytips ladder.

A mammoth week of games, we 4 games played yesterday morning andanother 10 before the week is out.  No major suprprises here, the only real eyebrow raiser is Aston villa being rated so poorly against Chelsea, but it seems to be in line with what the bookmakers are showing so what can you do?

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
24/03/2010	Aston Villa	Sunderland	70%	19%	11%
24/03/2010	Manchester City	Everton	41%	30%	29%
24/03/2010	Portsmouth	Chelsea	9%	17%	74%
27/03/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Birmingham City	47%	29%	24%
27/03/2010	Birmingham City	Arsenal	14%	22%	64%
27/03/2010	Chelsea	Aston Villa	72%	18%	10%
27/03/2010	Hull City	Fulham	26%	29%	44%
27/03/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Portsmouth	72%	18%	10%
27/03/2010	West Ham United	Stoke City	45%	29%	25%
27/03/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Everton	20%	27%	53%
27/03/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Manchester United	9%	17%	74%
27/03/2010	Burnley	Blackburn Rovers	31%	30%	38%
28/03/2010	Liverpool	Sunderland	81%	13%	6%
29/03/2010	Manchester City	Wigan Athletic	68%	20%	12%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 7 Predictions

A great week last week in the Super 14s, we managed to tipp every game correctly and also made a couple of nice bets on the Hurricanes and Lions to beat the line.

This week we tip home teams in every game bar the last, so here's hoping the home ground advantage counts for something this round.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
26/03/2010	Highlanders	Lions	75%	23%
26/03/2010	Brumbies	Chiefs	53%	43%
26/03/2010	Cheetahs	Reds	54%	42%
27/03/2010	Hurricanes	Sharks	61%	36%
27/03/2010	Waratahs	Blues	72%	26%
27/03/2010	W Force	Bulls	22%	75%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 1 Predictions

The 2010 AFL season proper gets underway today, so too my predictions for each game.  As the model is partly player based, and as only the Richmond vs Carlton teams have been named, I can only publish my predictions for this game at this stage - but as more teams get announced then I'll post the probs up here.

The model has tipped Carlton at a lot shorter price than the bookies have - the reason being that Richmond are playing 3 first-gamers, and the model just doesn't like this.  Even without these players it will still throw the game up as an 80 / 20 chance in Carlton's favour.

Now that teams have been named for Friday and Saturday's game I can release predictions for them - interesting that Geelong are rated shorter and Hawthorn even higher than the bookies odds, all down to the profile of players picked.  The Lions too are rated higher than the bookies so no doubt will be bet on.

A great start last night with Carlton easily account for Richmond, with an easy bet on them collecting.  Also we rated them a 30-point favourite so a bet on them to beat the line of 15.5 points at the start of the game made for another easy collect.

The teams for Sunday's games have now been released and the predictions are now up.  Interesting that it has tipped Collingwood over the Western Bulldogs, based on profile of players selected.  We're currently sitting on 5 from 5 tips so far so let's see if teh form continues.

With some late changes to Port Adelaide's side we now swing our tip over to North Melbourne - it's the cardinal rule of tipping not to change from the original selection and I've done it twice this round already - fingers crossed!!

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Richmond	Carlton	MCG	13%	86%
Geelong	Essendon	MCG	59%	39%
Melbourne	Hawthorn	MCG	8%	92%
Sydney	St Kilda	ANZ Stadium	36%	63%
Brisbane	West Coast	Gabba	84%	15%
Port Adelaide	North Melbourne	AAMI	42%	46%
Western Bulldogs	Collingwood	Etihad Stadium	45%	53%
Fremantle	Adelaide	Subiaco	35%	64%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 30 Predictions

Last week we tipped 7 from 11 results correct, but despite the better than expected return we drop slightly to 574th place overall on the footytips ladder.

This week sees another 11 games with West Ham and Wolverhampton playing a catch-up game mid week.  Should I remember beforehandthen I'll update the predictions for this game after the weekend.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
20/03/2010	Aston Villa	Wolverhampton Wanderers	74%	17%	9%
20/03/2010	Everton	Bolton Wanderers	70%	19%	11%
20/03/2010	Portsmouth	Hull City	54%	27%	20%
20/03/2010	Stoke City	Tottenham Hotspur	28%	30%	42%
20/03/2010	Sunderland	Birmingham City	39%	30%	31%
20/03/2010	Wigan Athletic	Burnley	51%	28%	22%
20/03/2010	Arsenal	West Ham United	81%	13%	6%
21/03/2010	Manchester United	Liverpool	58%	25%	17%
21/03/2010	Fulham	Manchester City	37%	30%	33%
21/03/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Chelsea	11%	20%	69%
23/03/2010	West Ham United	Wolverhampton Wanderers	56%	26%	18%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 4 Predictions - Grand Final

We managed to get the result correct in last week's Sydney - Wellington preliminary final, and the result saw us move up 1 spot to 46th overall on footytips.

So this week sees the grand final, and the 4th time in succession that Melbourne's opponent in the A-League happens to be Sydney, surely a record.  As expected we tip Melbourne due to the home-field advantage, but keep in mind these predictions are for the result at the end of 90 minutes.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
20/03/2010	Melbourne	Sydney FC	Etihad Stadium	46%	26%	28%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 6 Predictions

Not too bad week tipping wise last week, getting 4 of the 6 results correct - not so good on the betting front though with only 2 of the 5 line bets getting up.

So hopefully we'll go a bit better this week - most of the games appear quite one-sided.  A few bets on the line for the underdogs Hurricanes and Lions, here's hoping they don't get beaten by too much!

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
19/03/2010	Blues	Brumbies	56%	41%
19/03/2010	Bulls	Hurricanes	70%	27%
20/03/2010	Crusaders	Lions	95%	4%
20/03/2010	Highlanders	Sharks	33%	64%
20/03/2010	W Force	Waratahs	31%	66%
20/03/2010	Stormers	Cheetahs	85%	14%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 3 Predictions

Last week we managed to get both results correct, thanks to Wellington winning in extra-time.  This result moves us up to 47th place overall on the footytips ladder.

So this week sees the preliminary final between Sydney and Wellington, the winner going through to Melbourne next week to play the Victory in the season decider.  Keep in mind that the predictions below are for the result at the end of 90 minutes.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
13/03/2010	Sydney FC	New Zealand	Sydney Football Stadium	51%	25%	25%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 29 Predictions

We went worse than expected last week, only getting 4 of the 8 results correct and slipping to about 500th on the footytips ladder.

This week sees 11 games, with Wigan and Aston Villa playing a catch-up game mid-week.  I'll update the probs for this game after the weekend matches.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
13/02/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Blackburn Rovers	63%	23%	14%
13/02/2010	Birmingham City	Everton	27%	30%	43%
13/02/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Wigan Athletic	46%	29%	25%
13/02/2010	Burnley	Wolverhampton Wanderers	44%	30%	27%
13/02/2010	Chelsea	West Ham United	84%	11%	5%
13/02/2010	Stoke City	Aston Villa	27%	30%	44%
13/02/2010	Hull City	Arsenal	9%	16%	75%
14/02/2010	Manchester United	Fulham	81%	13%	6%
14/02/2010	Sunderland	Manchester City	26%	29%	45%
15/02/2010	Liverpool	Portsmouth	82%	12%	6%
16/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Aston Villa	22%	28%	50%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 5 Predictions

A decent week last week saw us get 5 of the 7 tips correct, and also good away bets on the line on the Lions and Sharks.  A couple of long shots managed to win in the Reds and Cheetahs, but these things are expected from time to time.

A lot of close games this week, at least as far as my predictions go.  It looks like we'll be betting on a lot of away teams with the line at this stage - I'm happy with that because as previous work has shown these are the most profitable bets to be had in Super 14s.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
12/03/2010	Chiefs	Crusaders	49%	48%
12/03/2010	Waratahs	Lions	91%	8%
13/03/2010	Brumbies	Sharks	55%	42%
13/03/2010	Bulls	Highlanders	89%	10%
13/03/2010	Stormers	Hurricanes	47%	50%
13/03/2010	Reds	W Force	49%	47%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 2 Predictions

Despite the fact that two of the matches in the first week of the finals ended up in draws at the end of 90 minutes, footytips credits the winner of a penalty shoot-out with the result, hence we managed to get to of the results correct and moved up to 62nd place overall, probably helped by those above me who didn't bother submitting tips for the finals.

So from here on in it's do-or-die, but keep in mind these predictions are only relevant for the result at the end of 90 minuites.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
07/03/2010	New Zealand	Newcastle Jets	Westpac Stadium	42%	26%	32%
07/03/2010	Sydney FC	Melbourne Victory	Sydney Football Stadium	37%	27%	36%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 28 Predictions

A pretty good week last week in the EPL in tipping 6 from 9.  Unfortunately for some stupid reason I didn't enetr in my tip of Liverpool to beat Blackburn, meaning we didn't get the point for it - so officially on footytips I'm ranked 468th though in reality I should be a little higher.

It seems like a week of catch-up game as there are games everyday spread from Saturday through to Wednesday. 

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
6/03/2010	Arsenal	Burnley	87%	9%	4%
6/03/2010	West Ham United	Bolton Wanderers	53%	27%	22%
6/03/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Manchester United	8%	15%	77%
7/03/2010	Everton	Hull City	77%	15%	8%
8/03/2010	Wigan Athletic	Liverpool	12%	22%	67%
9/03/2010	Portsmouth	Birmingham City	40%	30%	30%
9/03/2010	Sunderland	Bolton Wanderers	43%	30%	27%
10/03/2010	Burnley	Stoke City	34%	31%	35%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 4 Predictions

 A decent week last week for Super 14 tipping, getting 5 of the 7 results correct.  Also a great week was had bettign wise, with big collects on the Blues and Highlanders who we rated as favourites despite the bookies thinking otherwise.

This week onwards sees each round reduce to 6 games, with 2 teams having a bye.  No real surprises with who we've tipped, though some decent overlays exist for those backing teams to win or beat the line.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
5/03/2010	Chiefs	Reds	89%	10%
5/03/2010	Brumbies	Lions	88%	11%
6/03/2010	Crusaders	Blues	81%	17%
6/03/2010	Waratahs	Sharks	60%	37%
6/03/2010	Stormers	Highlanders	74%	23%
6/03/2010	Cheetahs	Hurricanes	17%	81%