AFL 2010 Season - Round 6 Predictions

Well we finally sorted the kinks out in the model and tipped favourites in every game in Round 5, only to see half of them lose.  Still, as mentioned in last weeks post we had bets on Melbourne and Carlton who both won at generous odds.

This week sees us tipping all favourites again, except for Essendon over Hawthorn which again I'm comfortable to go with.  So it looks like we'll be betting on Essendon and Richmond, who we rate a lot better than their odds suggest.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Western Bulldogs	St Kilda	Telstra Dome	59%	39%
North Melbourne	Melbourne	Telstra Dome	38%	61%
Adelaide	Port Adelaide	AAMI Stadium	42%	56%
Essendon	Hawthorn	MCG	51%	47%
Sydney	Brisbane	SCG	65%	33%
Geelong	Richmond	Skilled Stadium	74%	24%
Carlton	Collingwood	MCG	31%	67%
West Coast	Fremantle	Subiaco	30%	68%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 12 Predictions

A so-so week, getting 4 correct tips as well as the draw out of the 7 games played.

Again no big surprises this late in the season - though we do rate the Brumbies a fairly good chance to win in a game the bookies have as even money.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
30/04/2010	Highlanders	Waratahs	27%	71%
30/04/2010	Stormers	Crusaders	49%	48%
1/05/2010	Hurricanes	Chiefs	71%	26%
1/05/2010	Brumbies	Reds	75%	22%
1/05/2010	Cheetahs	Blues	29%	68%
1/05/2010	Lions	W Force	39%	58%
1/05/2010	Bulls	Sharks	68%	29%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 5 Predictions

Another disastrous week last round, only getting 3 tips right again.  This has seen us revisit the model and tweak it's settings so that it's less dependant on the players selected and moreso on the overall team's form - this would have seen us land 7 tips last week instead of the 3, and 21 overall for the season so far - so I'm happy to go with that.

And thankfully this week we're tipping all the favourites.  We'll probably have a couple of small bets on Melbourne and Carlton which I'm happy enough with - otherwise no surprises at all.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Western Bulldogs	Adelaide	Telstra Dome	80%	19%
Sydney	West Coast	SCG	84%	16%
Melbourne	Brisbane	MCG	41%	57%
Port Adelaide	St Kilda	AAMI Stadium	29%	69%
Collingwood	Essendon	MCG	66%	32%
Hawthorn	North Melbourne	Aurora Stadium	69%	29%
Fremantle	Richmond	Subiaco	80%	19%
Carlton	Geelong	MCG	34%	65%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 11 Predictions

Another relatively poor week last week, only managing to get 3 of the matches right, and for the first time in quite a while we lost on the betting as well.

No great surprises this week as we return to a 7 game round- we're likely to have a couple of bets with the Stormers and Lions with the line.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
23/04/2010	Chiefs	Cheetahs	87%	12%
23/04/2010	Reds	Stormers	35%	62%
23/04/2010	W Force	Crusaders	19%	79%
24/04/2010	Highlanders	Hurricanes	27%	70%
24/04/2010	Waratahs	Brumbies	69%	29%
24/04/2010	Bulls	Lions	95%	5%
24/04/2010	Sharks	Blues	71%	26%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 4 Predictions

Last week was a stinker, only getting 3 games right in the AFL which sees us now languishing in the bottom 25% in most tipping comps. 

This week certainly doesn't do much for my confidence, with the model tipping outsiders in Essendon, North Melbourne and richmond, and also tipping Adelaide by a huge margin in a game the bookies have 50/50.  Still, massive profits were made last year on rounds like this, so let's hope nothing as changed since then!

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
West Coast	Essendon	Subiaco	47%	51%
North Melbourne	Sydney	Telstra Dome	57%	42%
Adelaide	Carlton	AAMI Stadium	86%	14%
Collingwood	Hawthorn	MCG	60%	38%
Brisbane	Western Bulldogs	Gabba	27%	71%
Richmond	Melbourne	MCG	51%	48%
Geelong	Port Adelaide	Skilled Stadium	96%	3%
St Kilda	Fremantle	Telstra Dome	72%	27%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 10 Predictions

A pretty ordinary week tipping wise last week in the Super 14’s last week, only getting 3 of the 6 results correct – how we did clean up by back 4 of the away teams with the line, with 3 of those games getting up.

No real surprises this week, the first two games are a little bit out from the bookies but otherwise all looks well.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
16/04/2010	Chiefs	Stormers	62%	35%
16/04/2010	Brumbies	Hurricanes	56%	41%
17/04/2010	Blues	W Force	76%	21%
17/04/2010	Crusaders	Cheetahs	95%	5%
17/04/2010	Reds	Bulls	26%	72%
17/04/2010	Lions	Sharks	16%	82%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 3 Predictions

Another pretty good week for round 2 in the AFl, with the model getting 6 of the games right and sitting on 12 tips for the season.

This week statrs off inetresting enough, with the model tipping Collingwood in a close game over St Kilda.  Other than that it's pretty much as expected.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
St Kilda	Collingwood	Telstra Dome	39%	59%
North Melbourne	West Coast	Telstra Dome	65%	33%
Port Adelaide	Brisbane	AAMI Stadium	53%	45%
Sydney	Richmond	SCG	78%	20%
Carlton	Essendon	MCG	73%	26%
Melbourne	Adelaide	MCG	12%	87%
Western Bulldogs	Hawthorn	MCG	65%	33%
Fremantle	Geelong	Subiaco	27%	71%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 9 Predictions

Another average week last week, tipping 4 of the 6 results correct - footytips counts the draw as a win so who are we to argue.

This week we tip with all the bookies favourites so no real suprises here.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
9/04/2010	Chiefs	Bulls	52%	45%
9/04/2010	Highlanders	W Force	62%	35%
9/04/2010	Blues	Stormers	58%	39%
10/04/2010	Crusaders	Waratahs	73%	25%
10/04/2010	Brumbies	Cheetahs	87%	12%
10/04/2010	Lions	Reds	41%	56%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 8 Predictions

An OK week last week in Super 14s, getting 4 of the 6 results correct. 

this week there are 3 close encounters and 3 seemingly clear-cut games - with any luck the close games will go our way and the one-sided games will go as expected.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
2/04/2010	Hurricanes	Crusaders	46%	51%
2/04/2010	W Force	Stormers	35%	62%
2/04/2010	Blues	Bulls	38%	59%
3/04/2010	Chiefs	Highlanders	84%	14%
3/04/2010	Waratahs	Cheetahs	90%	9%
3/04/2010	Sharks	Reds	83%	15%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 2 Predictions

Not a bad week to start off the AFL season, getting 6 of 8 tips correct.

A couple of interesting selections at this stage - Port over West Coast at Subiaco, and Hawthorn in a tight one over Geelong.  Keep in mond the final teams for the last 4 matches haven't been announced yet, so these predictions will change slightly when they are.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Brisbane	Carlton	Gabba	63%	35%
Collingwood	Melbourne	MCG	96%	4%
St Kilda	North Melbourne	Telstra Dome	70%	28%
West Coast	Port Adelaide	Subiaco	48%	51%
Adelaide	Sydney	AAMI Stadium	84%	15%
Essendon	Fremantle	Telstra Dome	59%	40%
Richmond	Western Bulldogs	MCG	12%	87%
Hawthorn	Geelong	MCG	49.4%	48.8%