World Cup Match Predictions - Round of 16

Now half the teams have been eliminated, and we're down to the knockout stages.  As expected the 3rd round of games wasn't as profitable as the previous rounds - although they still broke even, and indeed if you were smart and left out dubious games like Mexico vs Uruguay, France vs South Africa and Portugal vs Brazil where the results didn't affect who went through, then you woudl have been well in front again.

The predictions below are for the games in the round of 16 - and keep in mind these predictions are for the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation time - pretty much all bookmakers will offer this market.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Round of 16	Uruguay	Korea Republic	53%	29%	18%
Round of 16	Mexico	Argentina	22%	32%	46%
Round of 16	USA	Ghana	43%	33%	24%
Round of 16	England	Germany	35%	34%	31%
Round of 16	Netherlands	Slovakia	82%	13%	5%
Round of 16	Japan	Paraguay	30%	34%	36%
Round of 16	Brazil	Chile	61%	26%	14%
Round of 16	Portugal	Spain	14%	26%	59%

World Cup Match Predictions - Round 3

Well the model has gone fantastically  so far in the World Cup - making 54% ROI on the first 32 games played, and that includes backing favourites, long-shots and the draw as well.  The graph below shows how the profits have kept coming in betting to a constant kelly bank

Below are the predictions for the round 3 games of the World Cup - though I would advise to be extremely cautious bettign on any of these games given the stage of the tournament.  Some teams are already eliminated and will liekly play some 2nd-string players.  Some teams are assured of going through and will liekly rest key players.  And then there's the case of Group A where a draw between Mexico and Uruguay will see them both through at the expense of France and hosts South Africa -and to make thing even more interesting a win by Mexico would see them top the group and avoid Argentina in the round of 16 - so really who knows what will happen tonight.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Group	Mexico	Uruguay	40%	33%	27%
Group	France	South Africa	39%	33%	28%
Group	Nigeria	Korea Republic	22%	32%	46%
Group	Greece	Argentina	11%	22%	67%
Group	Slovenia	England	11%	22%	67%
Group	USA	Algeria	65%	24%	12%
Group	Ghana	Germany	14%	26%	59%
Group	Australia	Serbia	23%	32%	45%
Group	Slovakia	Italy	10%	21%	70%
Group	Paraguay	New Zealand	63%	24%	12%
Group	Denmark	Japan	41%	33%	26%
Group	Cameroon	Netherlands	5%	12%	84%
Group	Portugal	Brazil	11%	22%	67%
Group	Korea DPR	Côte d'Ivoire	12%	23%	65%
Group	Chile	Spain	18%	29%	52%
Group	Switzerland	Honduras	46%	32%	22%

World Cup Tournament Predictions

As with the match predictions, these are better late than never.

Below I present the predictions of every team to make every stage of the World Cup.  I simulate the tournament 100,000 times, with each team's rating after every simulated match going up or down depending on the result of that game - hence if a minnow happens to progress deeply into the tournament their rating will have gone up accordingly.

Shown below is the probability of every team to top their group, qualify for the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, final, and win the World Cup.  I'll update these as often as I remember to, but please note when I have said these predictions were last updated.

Current Prior to games on Monday 5th July

Group A	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Mexico	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
France	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Uruguay	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	22.7%	28.1%	8.8%
South Africa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group B	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Argentina	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Korea Republic	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Greece	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Nigeria	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group C	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
England	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
USA	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Slovenia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Algeria	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group D	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Germany	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	33.8%	44.9%	23.6%
Serbia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Australia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Ghana	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group E	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Netherlands	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	14.5%	71.9%	36.7%
Denmark	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Japan	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Cameroon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group F	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Italy	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Paraguay	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Slovakia	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
New Zealand	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group G	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Brazil	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Portugal	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Côte d'Ivoire	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Korea DPR	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group H	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Spain	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	29.1%	55.1%	30.9%
Chile	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Switzerland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Honduras	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

World Cup Match Predictions

A little late I'll admit, but better late than never.  I'd recently gone over how my predictions for the World Cup matches would have gone and was blown away - I'd be in front to the tune of 80% ROI so far - had I bet from the start.  Sadly I only started better as of last night - but still great wins to Greece over Nigeria and Mexico over France have shown some material profit.  Also previously wins to South Korea over Greece, Slovenia over Algeria, Japan over Cameroon and New Zealand's opening draw have seen the profitability of the model sky-rocket.


As they say though, talk is cheap.  So without further ado here are my predictions for the group matches of the world cup.  The matches in yellow below will changes slightly depending on the results of each team's previous game - and this will be updated in time.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Group	South Africa	Mexico	23%	32%	45%
Group	Uruguay	France	31%	34%	35%
Group	Argentina	Nigeria	64%	24%	12%
Group	Korea Republic	Greece	49%	31%	20%
Group	England	USA	58%	27%	15%
Group	Algeria	Slovenia	17%	28%	55%
Group	Germany	Australia	65%	23%	12%
Group	Serbia	Ghana	39%	33%	27%
Group	Netherlands	Denmark	74%	18%	8%
Group	Japan	Cameroon	39%	33%	28%
Group	Italy	Paraguay	52%	30%	18%
Group	New Zealand	Slovakia	23%	32%	45%
Group	Côte d'Ivoire	Portugal	23%	32%	45%
Group	Brazil	Korea DPR	93%	5%	2%
Group	Honduras	Chile	16%	28%	57%
Group	Spain	Switzerland	79%	15%	6%
Group	South Africa	Uruguay	28%	34%	38%
Group	France	Mexico	29%	34%	37%
Group	Greece	Nigeria	31%	34%	36%
Group	Argentina	Korea Republic	50%	30%	19%
Group	Germany	Serbia	59%	27%	15%
Group	Slovenia	USA	21%	31%	48%
Group	England	Algeria	86%	10%	4%
Group	Ghana	Australia	33%	34%	33%
Group	Netherlands	Japan	77%	16%	7%
Group	Cameroon	Denmark	24%	33%	43%
Group	Slovakia	Paraguay	20%	30%	50%
Group	Italy	New Zealand	79%	15%	6%
Group	Brazil	Côte d'Ivoire	78%	16%	6%
Group	Portugal	Korea DPR	75%	18%	8%
Group	Chile	Switzerland	46%	32%	22%
Group	Spain	Honduras	79%	15%	6%
Group	France	South Africa	45%	32%	23%
Group	Nigeria	Korea Republic	22%	32%	46%
Group	Greece	Argentina	11%	23%	67%
Group	Slovenia	England	9%	20%	72%
Group	USA	Algeria	69%	21%	10%
Group	Ghana	Germany	11%	23%	65%
Group	Australia	Serbia	28%	33%	39%
Group	Slovakia	Italy	10%	21%	69%
Group	Paraguay	New Zealand	62%	25%	13%
Group	Denmark	Japan	37%	34%	29%
Group	Cameroon	Netherlands	5%	14%	81%
Group	Portugal	Brazil	10%	22%	68%
Group	Korea DPR	Côte d'Ivoire	12%	24%	64%
Group	Chile	Spain	17%	29%	54%
Group	Switzerland	Honduras	48%	31%	21%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 13 Predictions

A great week last week for the model.  It managed to tip 6 winners which isn't too bad - but it also turned a tasty profit which is all the better.  Great collects on Richmond, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne (who returned half of the 5.50 odds outlaid) saw a great return for the week.

The round sees the split round, so at the time of writing the predictions below for the first 5 games are based on team form and the players selected, while the last 3 games are based on team form alone and will be updated next week when those squads are announced.

NOTE:  The predictions for the second half of the split round are now updated to include the player's picked.
 

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Hawthorn	Essendon	MCG	51%	48%
Carlton	Fremantle	Telstra Dome	54%	45%
Brisbane	Richmond	Gabba	73%	25%
North Melbourne	Port Adelaide	Telstra Dome	80%	19%
West Coast	Western Bulldogs	Subiaco	18%	81%
St Kilda	Geelong	MCG	46%	52%
Sydney	Collingwood	ANZ Stadium	51%	45%
Adelaide	Melbourne	AAMI Stadium	41%	58%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 11 Predictions

Last week the model lobbed with 5 winners, as mopst other people would have received as well given it was a week of clear favourites. The good news though is that we managed to get 5 from 5 bets home - including wins on outsiders Essendon @ $3.50 and Brisbane @ $3.73.

This week we've thrown up some interesting picks - including tips on outsiders North Melbourne, Essendon and Western Bulldogs who we rate close to $1.20 chance to beat Collingwood - no doubt we'll see a big bet on them.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Richmond	St Kilda	Telstra Dome	20%	79%
Carlton	Melbourne	MCG	54%	44%
Adelaide	Fremantle	AAMI Stadium	28%	70%
North Melbourne	Brisbane	Telstra Dome	52%	47%
West Coast	Geelong	Subiaco	29%	69%
Sydney	Essendon	SCG	46%	52%
Hawthorn	Port Adelaide	MCG	81%	18%
Collingwood	Western Bulldogs	Telstra Dome	18%	81%