World Cup Match Predictions - Round 3

Well the model has gone fantastically  so far in the World Cup - making 54% ROI on the first 32 games played, and that includes backing favourites, long-shots and the draw as well.  The graph below shows how the profits have kept coming in betting to a constant kelly bank

Below are the predictions for the round 3 games of the World Cup - though I would advise to be extremely cautious bettign on any of these games given the stage of the tournament.  Some teams are already eliminated and will liekly play some 2nd-string players.  Some teams are assured of going through and will liekly rest key players.  And then there's the case of Group A where a draw between Mexico and Uruguay will see them both through at the expense of France and hosts South Africa -and to make thing even more interesting a win by Mexico would see them top the group and avoid Argentina in the round of 16 - so really who knows what will happen tonight.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Group	Mexico	Uruguay	40%	33%	27%
Group	France	South Africa	39%	33%	28%
Group	Nigeria	Korea Republic	22%	32%	46%
Group	Greece	Argentina	11%	22%	67%
Group	Slovenia	England	11%	22%	67%
Group	USA	Algeria	65%	24%	12%
Group	Ghana	Germany	14%	26%	59%
Group	Australia	Serbia	23%	32%	45%
Group	Slovakia	Italy	10%	21%	70%
Group	Paraguay	New Zealand	63%	24%	12%
Group	Denmark	Japan	41%	33%	26%
Group	Cameroon	Netherlands	5%	12%	84%
Group	Portugal	Brazil	11%	22%	67%
Group	Korea DPR	Côte d'Ivoire	12%	23%	65%
Group	Chile	Spain	18%	29%	52%
Group	Switzerland	Honduras	46%	32%	22%